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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/21 10:48
Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
12 to 14 cents lower; wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
12 to 14 cents lower; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market
is firmer at midday with the S&P 5 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is
flat. The interest rate products are firmer. Energies have crude .50 lower and
natural gas .03 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious
metals are mixed with gold off 5.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from
Monday's gains after USDA's Crop Progress report showed enough planting
progress to ease concerns along with the second week of the forecast looking
better for development and the end of planting. Ethanol margins continue to see
pressure with unleaded drifting lower, even with corn easing a bit. Planting
will have to fight some more systems this week in the center and east of the
belt before improvement is seen. Weekly crop progress showed 70% planted versus
71% on average with emergence at 40% versus 39% on average. The daily export
wire had 110,000 metric tons (mt) of corn sold to Spain for old crop, and
113,050 mt sold to Mexico split 50/50 on old and new crop. South America has
little fresh news with little change to the weather patterns for the second
crop in Brazil for the short term with disease issues still lingering in
Argentina. Basis action should continue to remain mostly sideways. On the July
chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.58 is now nearby support after we closed
back above it Monday but are testing it again at midday with the Upper
Bollinger Band as resistance at $4.73.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 12 to 14 cents lower at midday with broad product
weakness and a little better than expected planting progress helping trade to
give back some of the Monday gains so far. Meal is 4.50 to 5.50 lower and oil
is 45 to 55 points lower. South America will continue to battle short-term
export impediments with flooding and strikes but overall the pace should
continue to expand into summer. Planting will have to work around further
systems next week with progress still ahead of the average at 52% versus 49%
with emergence at 26% versus 21% on average. Basis should remain steady to
softer until processers have better margins to encourage them. July soybean
futures have resistance at the $12.56 fresh high. Chart support is at the
20-day moving average at $12.09.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with light, two-sided action so far after
trade tested the recent highs early in the session before easing a bit. Weather
should drift back drier for the Plains into the end of the month with temps
near average. The dollar is holding off the lows of the range with MATIF wheat
just short of the recent highs in two-sided trade as well. Weekly crop progress
showed heading at 69% versus 57% on average, with good to excellent down 1% to
49% and poor to very poor unchanged at 18%. Spring wheat is 79% planted versus
65% on average, and 43% emerged versus 33% on average. On the KC July chart,
support is the 20-day moving average at $6.61, with the fresh high at $7.10 as
resistance with the upper Bollinger Band at $7.05, which we are just below.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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